HNK Rijeka 3–1 Vukovar: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Rijeka

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vukovar

T. Fruk 80' (pen)

A. Orec 30'

S. Radeljic 11'

R. Gonzalez 66'

12/6/2025

HNL · Round 16Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

HNK Rijeka60%

×Draw23%

Vukovar17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK RijekaExpected goals in this matchVukovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.84

HNK Rijeka

1.79

Vukovar

0.84

HNK Rijeka creates 113% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

1.85

creates per match

0.83

0.85

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

HNK Rijeka

1.85

Vukovar

0.83

allows per match

HNK Rijeka

0.85

Vukovar

1.72

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

HNK Rijeka-0.03on par

Vukovar+0.06on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Vukovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw

83%

HNK Rijeka or Vukovar

77%

Draw or Vukovar

40%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

34%

Vukovar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

83%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

53%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

26%

Vukovar 1+ goals

57%

Vukovar 2+ goals

21%

Vukovar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

78%

Vukovar (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 17 matches

Vukovar away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.72 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.85 + Vukovar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vukovar attack 0.83 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more

60%

level

23%

Vukovar scores more

17%

HNK Rijeka at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Orec

HNK Rijeka · D

8.3

Match Events

4'

11'

30'

32'

46'

J. Biljan← K. Calhanoglu

46'

R. Camacho← D. M. Mejia Moscoso

58'

Mladen Devetak

66'

R. Gonzalez↳ A. Jurilj

70'

D. Petrovic← N. Jankovic

70'

D. Cop← A. Juric

78'

Ante OrečPenalty confirmed

80'

T. FrukPenalty

83'

A. Gojak← L. Menalo

89'

J. Lasickas← M. Devetak

89'

N. Bodetic← S. Vignato

89'

M. Horvat← A. Jurilj

90+1'

Kristijan Pavičić

90'

M. Pilj← E. Shabani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKVukovar

Overview

68%Possession32%

20Total Shots5

2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.70

12Corners3

8Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots5

7On Target1

9Off Target3

4Blocked1

10Inside Box3

10Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

491Total Passes229

425Accurate Passes154

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2