HNK Rijeka 2–4 NK Slaven Belupo: Result & Stats

HNK Rijeka

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

NK Slaven Belupo

12/10/2023

HNL · Round 18Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Rijeka57%

×Draw23%

NK Slaven Belupo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK RijekaExpected goals in this matchNK Slaven Belupo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.95

HNK Rijeka

1.77

NK Slaven Belupo

0.95

HNK Rijeka creates 86% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.81

creates per match

0.97

0.93

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

HNK Rijeka

1.81

NK Slaven Belupo

0.97

allows per match

HNK Rijeka

0.93

NK Slaven Belupo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw

80%

HNK Rijeka or NK Slaven Belupo

77%

Draw or NK Slaven Belupo

43%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

32%

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

83%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

53%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

26%

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

61%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

25%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

74%

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.81 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

NK Slaven Belupo attack 0.97 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more

57%

level

23%

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

20%

HNK Rijeka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff