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HNK Rijeka vs Napoli — UEFA Europa League 2026

HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Napoli
Napoli
11/5/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group F - 3Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HNK Rijeka34%
×Draw27%
Napoli39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Rijeka
1.21
Napoli
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

HNK Rijeka
1.14
Napoli
1.64

allows per match

HNK Rijeka
1.00
Napoli
1.27

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par
Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw
61%
HNK Rijeka or Napoli
73%
Draw or Napoli
66%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
14%
Napoli wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
70%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
34%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
12%
Napoli 1+ goals
73%
Napoli 2+ goals
38%
Napoli 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
46%
Napoli (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.14 + Napoli defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Napoli attack 1.64 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more
34%
level
27%
Napoli scores more
39%

Napoli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Rijeka vs Napoli

Napoli beat HNK Rijeka 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion HNK Rijeka in Rijeka.