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HNK Rijeka vs AEK Larnaca — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
11/27/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

HNK Rijeka58%
×Draw26%
AEK Larnaca16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Rijeka
1.54
AEK Larnaca
0.67

HNK Rijeka creates 130% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

HNK Rijeka
1.85
AEK Larnaca
0.56

allows per match

HNK Rijeka
0.77
AEK Larnaca
1.22

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par
AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

AEK Larnaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw
84%
HNK Rijeka or AEK Larnaca
74%
Draw or AEK Larnaca
42%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
31%
AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
79%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
45%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
20%
AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
49%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
15%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
78%
AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.85 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

AEK Larnaca attack 0.56 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more
58%
level
26%
AEK Larnaca scores more
16%

HNK Rijeka at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
H. MilicevicAEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca · D
7.9

Match Events

13'
Waldo Rubio Marín
45'
Jeremie Gnali
52'
Riad BajićGoal cancelled
56'
Giorgos Naoum
60'
Pere Pons
60'
Jorge Miramón
67'
D. Cop← D. Adu Adjei
67'
L. Menalo← A. Gojak
75'
Jimmy Suarez← G. Naoum
75'
G. Ekpolo← W. Rubio
75'
E. Cabrera← R. Bajic
90+6'
Ante Majstorović
90+3'
Hrvoje Miličević
90+3'
Enric Saborit
90+4'
V. Roberge← D. Ivanovic

Possession

63%HNK

Shots

23HNK

Pass accuracy

54%HNK

Statistics

HNKAEK
Overview
63%Possession37%
23Total Shots6
1.07Expected Goals (xG)0.38
7Corners1
19Fouls14
Shots
23Total Shots6
5On Target1
7Off Target4
11Blocked1
10Inside Box4
13Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
513Total Passes302
423Accurate Passes207
82%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0.84Goals Prevented0.84
Discipline
19Fouls14
1Yellow Cards7
2Offsides2

UEFA Europa Conference League: HNK Rijeka 0–0 AEK Larnaca

HNK Rijeka and AEK Larnaca drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 27, 2025.

HNK Rijeka controlled possession (63%) and registered 23 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion HNK Rijeka in Rijeka.