HNK Hajduk Split 3–0 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Hajduk Split

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sibenik

Y. Benrahou 77'

J. Mlakar 64'

R. Brajković 54'

5/28/2023

HNL · Round 36Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split50%

×Draw26%

Sibenik24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK Hajduk SplitExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.95

HNK Hajduk Split

1.51

Sibenik

0.95

HNK Hajduk Split creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.77

creates per match

1.01

0.89

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split

1.77

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split

0.89

Sibenik

1.25

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split-0.24scores less

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw

76%

HNK Hajduk Split or Sibenik

74%

Draw or Sibenik

50%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+

26%

Sibenik wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals

78%

HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals

44%

HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals

19%

Sibenik 1+ goals

61%

Sibenik 2+ goals

25%

Sibenik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)

68%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.77 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sibenik attack 1.01 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more

50%

level

26%

Sibenik scores more

24%

HNK Hajduk Split at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Y. Benrahou

HNK Hajduk Split · M

8.3

Match Events

25'

I. Lučić← D. Subašić

36'

Marko LivajaGoal cancelled

54'

R. Brajković↳ M. Livaja

59'

C. Awaziem← L. Vušković

59'

E. Letaj← D. Melnjak

64'

J. Mlakar↳ Y. Benrahou

70'

M. Matić← S. Perić

75'

J. Baturina← A. Hiroš

76'

I. Dolček← K. Špeljak

76'

M. Barbnabas← M. Soldo

77'

Y. Benrahou↳ F. Krovinović

79'

I. Ćubelić← R. Brajković

79'

S. Simič← Ferro

87'

D. Grdić← J. Mesa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKSibenik

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots8

6Corners2

6Fouls2

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target1

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

9Inside Box4

1Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

450Total Passes551

381Accurate Passes465

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls2

3Offsides1