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HNK Hajduk Split vs Sibenik — HNL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sibenik
Sibenik
M. Livaja 85'
A. Kalik 45'
H. Arai 13'
1/22/2023HNLHNL · Round 18Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split50%
×Draw26%
Sibenik24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split
1.51
Sibenik
0.95

HNK Hajduk Split creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split
1.77
Sibenik
1.01

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split
0.89
Sibenik
1.25

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split-0.24scores less
Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw
76%
HNK Hajduk Split or Sibenik
74%
Draw or Sibenik
50%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
26%
Sibenik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
78%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
44%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
19%
Sibenik 1+ goals
61%
Sibenik 2+ goals
25%
Sibenik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
68%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.77 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sibenik attack 1.01 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more
50%
level
26%
Sibenik scores more
24%

HNK Hajduk Split at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
F. KrovinovićHNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split · F
7.9

Match Events

13'
H. Arai↳ M. Soldo
39'
M. Barbnabas← M. Soldo
42'
Juan Mesa
45+2'
Marko LivajaGoal confirmed
45'
A. Kalik
57'
K. Špeljak← I. Delić
57'
N. Rak← I. Krolo
60'
Chidozie Awaziem
72'
R. Pukštas← J. Mlakar
72'
G. Lovrencsics← D. Mikanović
80'
N. Kalinić← A. Kalik
83'
M. Fossati← L. Grgic
85'
M. Livaja
88'
L. Kreković← D. Grdić

Possession

70%HNK

Shots

22HNK

Pass accuracy

59%HNK

Statistics

HNKSibenik
Overview
70%Possession30%
22Total Shots5
9Corners4
10Fouls10
Shots
22Total Shots5
7On Target1
12Off Target3
3Blocked1
17Inside Box4
5Outside Box1
Passing
70%Possession30%
543Total Passes244
431Accurate Passes132
79%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split vs Sibenik

HNK Hajduk Split beat Sibenik 2-1 in HNL on January 22, 2023.

Goals: H. Arai (13'), A. Kalik (45'), M. Livaja (85').

HNK Hajduk Split controlled possession (70%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.