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HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — HNL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
3/16/2024HNLHNL · Round 27Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split52%
×Draw25%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split
1.65
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.02

HNK Hajduk Split creates 62% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split
1.76
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.15

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split
0.89
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.53

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw
77%
HNK Hajduk Split or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
75%
Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
48%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
28%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
81%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
49%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
23%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
64%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
27%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
69%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.89 · 144 matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.76 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.15 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more
52%
level
25%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
23%

HNK Hajduk Split at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 in HNL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.