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HNK Hajduk Split vs Inter Zapresic — HNL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
9/22/2019HNLHNL · Round 9Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split63%
×Draw21%
Inter Zapresic16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split
2.04
Inter Zapresic
0.91

HNK Hajduk Split creates 124% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split
1.76
Inter Zapresic
0.92

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split
0.89
Inter Zapresic
2.31

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw
84%
HNK Hajduk Split or Inter Zapresic
79%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
37%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
39%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
87%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
60%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
33%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
60%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
23%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
80%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.89 · 144 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.76 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.04

Inter Zapresic attack 0.92 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more
63%
level
21%
Inter Zapresic scores more
16%

HNK Hajduk Split at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split vs Inter Zapresic

HNK Hajduk Split beat Inter Zapresic 3-1 in HNL on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.