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HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Rijeka — HNL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
5/18/2025HNLHNL · Round 35Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split45%
×Draw26%
HNK Rijeka29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split
1.48
HNK Rijeka
1.15

HNK Hajduk Split creates 29% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split
1.76
HNK Rijeka
1.40

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split
0.89
HNK Rijeka
1.19

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par
HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

HNK Rijeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw
71%
HNK Hajduk Split or HNK Rijeka
74%
Draw or HNK Rijeka
55%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
22%
HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
77%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
43%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
19%
HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
68%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
32%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
60%
HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.89 · 144 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.76 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

HNK Rijeka attack 1.40 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more
45%
level
26%
HNK Rijeka scores more
29%

HNK Hajduk Split at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Rijeka

HNK Hajduk Split beat HNK Rijeka 2-1 in HNL on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.