HNK Hajduk Split vs Fehérvár FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
HNK Hajduk Split61%
Fehérvár FC17%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
HNK Hajduk Split creates 119% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
HNK Hajduk Split ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches
Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
HNK Hajduk Split attack 2.43 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.84
Fehérvár FC attack 1.25 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
HNK Hajduk Split at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
HNK Hajduk Split host Fehérvár FC on Wednesday, 11 January 2023 at 00:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Preview: HNK Hajduk Split host Fehérvár FC
January 11, 2023: HNK Hajduk Split take on Fehérvár FC in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
HNK Hajduk Split host Fehérvár FC at Sport Center Zelena Laguna.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.