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HNK Hajduk Split II vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
FT
2 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
4/20/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 25Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II56%
×Draw22%
Zmaj Makarska22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.91
Zmaj Makarska
1.12

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 78 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw
78%
HNK Hajduk Split II or Zmaj Makarska
78%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
44%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
32%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
85%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
57%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
30%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
67%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
31%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
72%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.60 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.91

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
56%
level
22%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
22%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split II vs Zmaj Makarska

HNK Hajduk Split II beat Zmaj Makarska 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.