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HNK Hajduk Split II vs Vodice — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
FT
5 – 0
Vodice
Vodice
8/26/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II52%
×Draw23%
Vodice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.89
Vodice
1.26

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Vodice
0.92

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Vodice
2.17

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par
Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Vodice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw
75%
HNK Hajduk Split II or Vodice
77%
Draw or Vodice
48%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
29%
Vodice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
85%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
56%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
29%
Vodice 1+ goals
72%
Vodice 2+ goals
36%
Vodice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
67%
Vodice (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.60 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Vodice attack 0.92 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
52%
level
23%
Vodice scores more
25%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split II vs Vodice

HNK Hajduk Split II beat Vodice 5-0 in Third NL - Jug on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.