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HNK Hajduk Split II vs Solin — First NL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
CANC
15:00
Solin
Solin
5/3/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 27Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II54%
×Draw23%
Solin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.81
Solin
1.11

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 88 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.78
Solin
1.01

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.22
Solin
1.85

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par
Solin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Solin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw
77%
HNK Hajduk Split II or Solin
77%
Draw or Solin
46%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
30%
Solin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
84%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
54%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
27%
Solin 1+ goals
67%
Solin 2+ goals
30%
Solin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
70%
Solin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

Solin away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.78 + Solin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

Solin attack 1.01 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
54%
level
23%
Solin scores more
23%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNK Hajduk Split II face Solin (First NL)

First NL returns with HNK Hajduk Split II hosting Solin. Match starts May 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

HNK Hajduk Split II host Solin at Stadion Poljud.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.