HNK Hajduk Split II 2–2 Rudes: Result & Stats

HNK Hajduk Split II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rudes

J. Pršir 89' (pen)

J. Bajić 67'

T. Havojić 73', 56'

9/28/2019

First NL · Round 7Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II43%

×Draw26%

Rudes31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK Hajduk Split IIExpected goals in this matchRudes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.21

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.46

Rudes

1.21

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 91 away

1.78

creates per match

1.21

1.22

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.78

Rudes

1.21

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.22

Rudes

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Rudes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Rudes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw

69%

HNK Hajduk Split II or Rudes

74%

Draw or Rudes

57%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

21%

Rudes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

77%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

43%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

18%

Rudes 1+ goals

70%

Rudes 2+ goals

34%

Rudes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

58%

Rudes (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

Rudes away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.78 + Rudes defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rudes attack 1.21 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

43%

level

26%

Rudes scores more

31%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

56'

67'

73'

74'

76'

76'

M. Matić← K. Prpić Bosanac

83'

S. Chinedu← M. Šego

83'

N. Burić← T. Havojić

89'

J. PrširPenalty

HNK

Rudes

1

5

13

16

8

3

10

⚽2

▼

Havojić

7

Erick

18

▼

Bosanac

2

▼

9

71

2

15

5

8

▼

Skorup

6

Ševelj

88

⚽

Pršir

29

⚽

Bajić

97

▼

Špikić

11

▼

Šego

10

Blagaić

Manager: M. Despotović

74'▲I. Brnić←▼D. Špikić

76'▲F. Kosić←▼D. Skorup

83'▲S. Chinedu←▼M. Šego

HNK Hajduk Split II substitutes

90Brnić22Kosić20Chinedu33Martinović50Baždarić70Grubišić77Dellova

Manager: M. Labrović

46'▲M. Aliyu←▼I. Brekalo

76'▲M. Matić←▼K. Prpić Bosanac

83'▲N. Burić←▼T. Havojić

Rudes substitutes

14Aliyu4Matić17Burić6Kćira15Raguž11Tominac12Marić

First NL: HNK Hajduk Split II 2–2 Rudes

HNK Hajduk Split II and Rudes drew 2-2 in First NL on September 28, 2019.

Goals: T. Havojić (56', 73'), J. Bajić (67'), J. Pršir (89' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.

HNK Hajduk Split II vs Rudes — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: HNK Hajduk Split II 2–2 Rudes