HNK Hajduk Split II 2–0 NK Zadar: Result & Stats

HNK Hajduk Split II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

NK Zadar

I. Prtajin 73'

J. Pršir 68'

4/14/2019

First NL · Round 20Stadion Poljud (Split)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II58%

×Draw22%

NK Zadar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK Hajduk Split IIExpected goals in this matchNK Zadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.11

HNK Hajduk Split II

2.00

NK Zadar

1.11

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

1.78

creates per match

1.00

1.22

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.78

NK Zadar

1.00

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.22

NK Zadar

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

NK Zadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw

79%

HNK Hajduk Split II or NK Zadar

78%

Draw or NK Zadar

42%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

34%

NK Zadar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

86%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

59%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

32%

NK Zadar 1+ goals

67%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

30%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

74%

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.78 + NK Zadar defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.00

NK Zadar attack 1.00 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

58%

level

22%

NK Zadar scores more

21%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

V. Blažević← L. Knežević

66'

I. Prtajin← J. Blagaić

68'

73'

76'

77'

79'

86'

HNK

NK

22

▼

1

15

7

25

3

4

19

▼

Knežević

16

Begić

2

Repić

11

▼

1

18

15

4

5

16

88

⚽

Pršir

25

▼

Sahiti

97

▼

Špikić

11

Šego

21

▼

Blagaić

Manager: M. Despotović

66'▲I. Prtajin←▼J. Blagaić

77'▲F. Kosić←▼E. Sahiti

86'▲T. Teklić←▼D. Špikić

HNK Hajduk Split II substitutes

24Prtajin22Kosić10Teklić29Bajić23Brnić6Bašić42Sentić

Manager: M. Karoglan

56'▲V. Blažević←▼L. Knežević

76'▲I. Tokić←▼E. Kulaš

79'▲J. Katuša←▼N. Llanos

NK Zadar substitutes

99Blažević6Tokić28Katuša5Iveljić26Jurjević17Surać12Pinčić

First NL: HNK Hajduk Split II 2–0 NK Zadar

HNK Hajduk Split II beat NK Zadar 2-0 in First NL on April 14, 2019.

Goals: J. Pršir (68'), I. Prtajin (73').

The match was played at Stadion Poljud (Split).

HNK Hajduk Split II vs NK Zadar — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: HNK Hajduk Split II 2–0 NK Zadar