HNK Hajduk Split II 2–0 HNK Cibalia: Result & Stats

HNK Hajduk Split II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Cibalia

T. Jurica 85'

I. Šarić 58'

4/11/2021

First NL · Round 25Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II49%

×Draw24%

HNK Cibalia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK Hajduk Split IIExpected goals in this matchHNK Cibalia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.13

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.65

HNK Cibalia

1.13

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 107 away

1.78

creates per match

1.04

1.22

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.78

HNK Cibalia

1.04

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.22

HNK Cibalia

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

HNK Cibalia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw

74%

HNK Hajduk Split II or HNK Cibalia

76%

Draw or HNK Cibalia

51%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

26%

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

81%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

49%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

23%

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals

68%

HNK Cibalia 2+ goals

31%

HNK Cibalia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

65%

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

HNK Cibalia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.78 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

HNK Cibalia attack 1.04 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

49%

level

24%

HNK Cibalia scores more

26%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

I. Šarić

62'

I. Galić← L. Knežević

62'

K. Miljanić← J. Ciprić

62'

P. Stanić← R. Perić-Komšić

65'

B. Tolaj← I. Ćalušić

65'

T. Lauš← I. Brnić

77'

S. Chinedu← J. Blagaić

77'

T. Jurica← M. Čuić

78'

D. Križanović← L. Pavlak

85'

A. Bubnjar← G. Diyoke

85'

T. Jurica

88'

M. Burin← A. Muratović

HNK

12

Đaković

16

Rugašević

4

Baltić

11

▼

Ciprić

2

Išasegi

14

Jazvić

8

▼

Diyoke

44

▼

Pavlak

3

▼

Knežević

22

▼

6

1

5

22

▼

Muratović

6

Ševelj

27

▼

Ćalušić

32

Škaričić

3

Bekavac

21

▼

Čuić

24

▼

Blagaić

7

▼

Brnić

10

⚽

Šarić

Manager: G. Sablić

65'▲B. Tolaj←▼I. Ćalušić

65'▲T. Lauš←▼I. Brnić

77'▲S. Chinedu←▼J. Blagaić

77'▲T. Jurica←▼M. Čuić

88'▲M. Burin←▼A. Muratović

HNK Hajduk Split II substitutes

9Tolaj33Lauš20Chinedu37Jurica25Burin29Bajić70Grubišić2Iličić99Silić

Manager: K. Tomić

62'▲I. Galić←▼L. Knežević

62'▲K. Miljanić←▼J. Ciprić

62'▲P. Stanić←▼R. Perić-Komšić

78'▲D. Križanović←▼L. Pavlak

85'▲A. Bubnjar←▼G. Diyoke

HNK Cibalia substitutes

10Galić7Miljanić5Stanić19Križanović17Bubnjar1Slukić20Antolović21Tia