HNK Hajduk Split II 3–2 Dubrava Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Dubrava Zagreb

I. Brnić 90'

B. Barišić 85'

L. Grubišić 13'

B. Barišić 29' (OG)

D. Juranović 28' (pen)

10/4/2020

First NL · Round 9Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II48%

×Draw25%

Dubrava Zagreb27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK Hajduk Split IIExpected goals in this matchDubrava Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.10

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.57

Dubrava Zagreb

1.10

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 106 away

1.78

creates per match

0.98

1.22

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.78

Dubrava Zagreb

0.98

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.22

Dubrava Zagreb

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw

73%

HNK Hajduk Split II or Dubrava Zagreb

75%

Draw or Dubrava Zagreb

52%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

25%

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

79%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

46%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

21%

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals

67%

Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals

30%

Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

64%

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.78 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

48%

level

25%

Dubrava Zagreb scores more

27%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

L. Grubišić

28'

D. JuranovićPenalty

29'

B. BarišićOwn goal

46'

R. Kauzlarić← José Rodriguez

57'

M. Šugić← T. Ljubanović

64'

71'

71'

81'

85'

90'

HNK

Dubrava

26

1

3

5

23

▼

Ljubanovi

10

Alghoul

22

Džaferovi

7

⚽

Juranović

9

▼

Rodriguez

14

Mudražija

18

Mlinarić

33

▼

Lauš

99

Sentić

5

⚽🥅

Barišić

25

Burin

27

▼

Ćalušić

32

Škaričić

3

▼

Letaj

70

⚽

Grubišić

44

Filipović

7

⚽

Brnić

9

▼

Tolaj

Manager: M. Despotović

64'▲M. Sosic←▼T. Lauš

71'▲F. Kosić←▼I. Ćalušić

71'▲S. Chinedu←▼B. Tolaj

81'▲I. Ćubelić←▼E. Letaj

HNK Hajduk Split II substitutes

19Sosic16Kosić20Chinedu15Ćubelić1Ninčević13Baždarić14Mijatović21Giljanović22Muratović

46'▲R. Kauzlarić←▼José Rodriguez

57'▲M. Šugić←▼T. Ljubanović

Dubrava Zagreb substitutes

20Kauzlarić21Šugić2Maretić15Ivanović16Vavra12Cyprian

First NL: HNK Hajduk Split II 3–2 Dubrava Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split II beat Dubrava Zagreb 3-2 in First NL on October 4, 2020.

Goals: L. Grubišić (13'), D. Juranović (28' pen), B. Barišić (29' o.g., 85'), I. Brnić (90').

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.

HNK Hajduk Split II vs Dubrava Zagreb — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: HNK Hajduk Split II 3–2 Dubrava Zagreb