HNK Gorica 0–0 NK Varazdin: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Gorica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

NK Varazdin

8/3/2024

HNL · Round 1ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

HNK Gorica42%

×Draw26%

NK Varazdin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchNK Varazdin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

HNK Gorica

1.40

NK Varazdin

1.16

HNK Gorica creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

1.17

creates per match

1.04

1.27

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

NK Varazdin

1.04

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

NK Varazdin

1.63

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

NK Varazdin-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Varazdin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

69%

HNK Gorica or NK Varazdin

74%

Draw or NK Varazdin

58%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

20%

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

75%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

41%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

17%

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

69%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

32%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

58%

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.63 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + NK Varazdin defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

NK Varazdin attack 1.04 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

42%

level

26%

NK Varazdin scores more

31%

HNK Gorica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Leš

HNK Gorica · D

8.3

Match Events

22'

K. Krizmanić← D. Mikanović

44'

46'

46'

62'

62'

M. Ndockyt← L. Kapulica

62'

V. Majstorović← M. Šlogar

77'

A. Lazarov← V. Skrbin

80'

J. Poldrugač← M. Šego

87'

Dimitar Mitrovski

88'

V. Jovanov← M. Dabro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKNK

Overview

53%Possession47%

5Total Shots18

4Corners6

11Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots18

0On Target7

4Off Target6

1Blocked5

3Inside Box12

2Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

469Total Passes418

397Accurate Passes350

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2