HNK Gorica 0–3 NK Slaven Belupo: Result & Stats

HNK Gorica

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

NK Slaven Belupo

I. Nestorovski 81'

A. Šuto 45+6'

T. Božić 45+3'

3/14/2025

HNL · Round 26ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

HNK Gorica44%

×Draw26%

NK Slaven Belupo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchNK Slaven Belupo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.16

HNK Gorica

1.45

NK Slaven Belupo

1.16

HNK Gorica creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.17

creates per match

1.05

1.27

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

NK Slaven Belupo

1.05

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

NK Slaven Belupo

1.73

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

NK Slaven Belupo-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

70%

HNK Gorica or NK Slaven Belupo

74%

Draw or NK Slaven Belupo

56%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

21%

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

77%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

42%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

18%

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

69%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

32%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

59%

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.73 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.05 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

44%

level

26%

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

30%

HNK Gorica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

I. Nestorovski

NK Slaven Belupo · F

8.6

Match Events

18'

Ante ŠutoGoal cancelled

25'

Luka Lučić

38'

Igor LepinjicaPenalty cancelled

41'

Ante Erceg

45+3'

T. Božić↳ I. Nestorovski

45+6'

46'

46'

65'

67'

68'

70'

80'

M. Agbekpornu← I. Lepinjica

81'

I. Nestorovski↳ M. Caimacov

82'

L. Vrzić← A. Pajaziti

82'

V. Majstorović← D. Mikanović

89'

P. Marić← I. Nestorovski

89'

L. Bošnjak← A. Liber

89'

M. Aščić← M. Caimacov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKNK

Overview

52%Possession48%

5Total Shots10

4Corners3

17Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots10

1On Target5

4Off Target4

0Blocked1

1Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

343Total Passes321

251Accurate Passes227

73%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2