HNK Gorica 2–1 NK Slaven Belupo: Result & Stats

HNK Gorica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

NK Slaven Belupo

M. Šlogar 90+4'

J. Pršir 28' (pen)

D. Martinović 30'

9/30/2024

HNL · Round 8ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

HNK Gorica44%

×Draw26%

NK Slaven Belupo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchNK Slaven Belupo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.16

HNK Gorica

1.45

NK Slaven Belupo

1.16

HNK Gorica creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.17

creates per match

1.05

1.27

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

NK Slaven Belupo

1.05

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

NK Slaven Belupo

1.73

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

NK Slaven Belupo-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

70%

HNK Gorica or NK Slaven Belupo

74%

Draw or NK Slaven Belupo

56%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

21%

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

77%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

42%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

18%

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

69%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

32%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

59%

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.73 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.05 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

44%

level

26%

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

30%

HNK Gorica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Pršir

HNK Gorica · M

7.9

Match Events

15'

Mario MaločaGoal cancelled

27'

Marko KolarPenalty confirmed

28'

J. PrširPenalty

30'

D. Martinović↳ A. Grgić

45+1'

Tomislav Božić

54'

Antonio Bosec

61'

Ivan Banić

61'

Ivan DolčekPenalty cancelled

67'

Mesaque Dju← L. Kapulica

67'

V. Čaić← M. Leš

69'

Mihail Caimacov

74'

Luka Lučić

74'

A. Liber← M. Caimacov

74'

M. Šakota← D. Martinović

80'

T. Majić← M. Kolar

81'

D. Pavlović← J. Pršir

84'

R. Murić← A. Grgić

90+3'

M. Šlogar← A. Pajaziti

90+5'

M. Boras← I. Dolček

90+4'

M. Šlogar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKNK

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots15

1.63Expected Goals (xG)2.04

5Corners3

7Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots15

6On Target4

1Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

376Total Passes333

276Accurate Passes239

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3