HNK Gorica 0–0 Istra 1961: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Gorica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Istra 1961

12/9/2023

HNL · Round 18ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Gorica48%

×Draw26%

Istra 196126%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchIstra 1961

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

HNK Gorica

1.50

Istra 1961

1.04

HNK Gorica creates 44% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.31

creates per match

0.81

1.28

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.31

Istra 1961

0.81

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.28

Istra 1961

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Istra 1961+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

Istra 1961 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

74%

HNK Gorica or Istra 1961

74%

Draw or Istra 1961

52%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

24%

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

78%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

44%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

19%

Istra 1961 1+ goals

65%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

28%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

65%

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.31 + Istra 1961 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Istra 1961 attack 0.81 + HNK Gorica defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

48%

level

26%

Istra 1961 scores more

26%

HNK Gorica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff