HNK Gorica 0–2 Göztepe: Result & Stats

HNK Gorica

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Göztepe

Juan Santos 49'

S. Armstrong 29'

7/13/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

HNK Gorica26%

×Draw28%

Göztepe46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.35

HNK Gorica

0.94

Göztepe

1.35

Göztepe creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.27

creates per match

1.60

1.09

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

Göztepe

1.60

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.09

Göztepe

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

Göztepe →

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

54%

HNK Gorica or Göztepe

72%

Draw or Göztepe

74%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

Göztepe wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

61%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

24%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

74%

Göztepe 2+ goals

39%

Göztepe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

36%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.27 + Göztepe defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.94

Göztepe attack 1.60 + HNK Gorica defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

26%

level

28%

Göztepe scores more

46%

Göztepe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

S. Armstrong↳ O. Bayrak

49'

Juan Santos↳ A. Kurtulan

68'

HNK

Göztepe

⚽

👔

Manager: Mario Carevic

HNK Gorica substitutes

64Epailly40JosipovićKardum21Moustapha20Vrzić

👔

Manager: Stanimir Stoilov

Göztepe substitutes

ÖztürkMohammedDismasKurtulanJuanDennisBokeleBekiroğluGodói

Match Recap: HNK Gorica vs Göztepe

Göztepe beat HNK Gorica 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 13, 2026.

Goals: S. Armstrong (29'), Juan Santos (49').

HNK Gorica vs Göztepe — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: HNK Gorica vs Göztepe