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HNK Cibalia vs Sesvete — First NL 2018

HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sesvete
Sesvete
11/30/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 17Stadion Cibalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

HNK Cibalia44%
×Draw27%
Sesvete29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Cibalia
1.40
Sesvete
1.07

HNK Cibalia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 103 away

creates per match

HNK Cibalia
1.56
Sesvete
1.11

allows per match

HNK Cibalia
1.03
Sesvete
1.24

finishing

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par
Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Cibalia ↓

Sesvete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

HNK Cibalia or draw
71%
HNK Cibalia or Sesvete
73%
Draw or Sesvete
56%

Winning margin

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
21%
Sesvete wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
75%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
41%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
17%
Sesvete 1+ goals
66%
Sesvete 2+ goals
29%
Sesvete 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
61%
Sesvete (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Cibalia at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 108 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Cibalia attack 1.56 + Sesvete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sesvete attack 1.11 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HNK Cibalia scores more
44%
level
27%
Sesvete scores more
29%

HNK Cibalia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HNK Cibalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: HNK Cibalia 0–0 Sesvete

HNK Cibalia and Sesvete drew 0-0 in First NL on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Cibalia in Vinkovci.