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HNK Cibalia vs Dinamo Zagreb II — First NL 2018

HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
CANC
00:00
Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
4/4/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 22Stadion Cibalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

HNK Cibalia52%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Zagreb II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Cibalia
1.59
Dinamo Zagreb II
0.98

HNK Cibalia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 55 away

creates per match

HNK Cibalia
1.56
Dinamo Zagreb II
0.93

allows per match

HNK Cibalia
1.03
Dinamo Zagreb II
1.62

finishing

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Cibalia ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

HNK Cibalia or draw
77%
HNK Cibalia or Dinamo Zagreb II
75%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II
48%

Winning margin

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
27%
Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
80%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
47%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
62%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
69%
Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Cibalia at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 108 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Cibalia attack 1.56 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HNK Cibalia scores more
52%
level
25%
Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
23%

HNK Cibalia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HNK Cibalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: HNK Cibalia host Dinamo Zagreb II

April 4, 2020: HNK Cibalia take on Dinamo Zagreb II in First NL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

HNK Cibalia host Dinamo Zagreb II at Stadion Cibalia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.