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HNK Cibalia vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo — First NL 2018

HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
11/9/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 14Stadion HNK Cibalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

HNK Cibalia50%
×Draw26%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Cibalia
1.52
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.99

HNK Cibalia creates 54% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 122 away

creates per match

HNK Cibalia
1.56
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.96

allows per match

HNK Cibalia
1.03
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.47

finishing

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par
Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Cibalia ↓

Bsk Bijelo Brdo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

HNK Cibalia or draw
75%
HNK Cibalia or Bsk Bijelo Brdo
74%
Draw or Bsk Bijelo Brdo
50%

Winning margin

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
25%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
78%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
45%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
20%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals
63%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals
26%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
67%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Cibalia at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 108 matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Cibalia attack 1.56 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 0.96 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HNK Cibalia scores more
50%
level
26%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more
25%

HNK Cibalia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HNK Cibalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Cibalia vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo

HNK Cibalia beat Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2-0 in First NL on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion HNK Cibalia in Vinkovci.