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Hlučín vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hlučín
Hlučín
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
R. Loksa 8'
J. Kiska 63' (pen)
M. Vintr 38'
3/6/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 18Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hlučín49%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Otrokovice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlučín
1.84
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.35

Hlučín creates 36% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hlučín
1.69
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Hlučín
1.34
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Hlučín+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlučín ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hlučín or draw
72%
Hlučín or Viktoria Otrokovice
77%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
51%

Winning margin

Hlučín wins by 2+
27%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hlučín 1+ goals
84%
Hlučín 2+ goals
55%
Hlučín 3+ goals
28%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
74%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
39%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hlučín (draw refunded)
63%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlučín at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlučín attack 1.69 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.84

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Hlučín defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hlučín scores more
49%
level
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
28%

Hlučín at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. Loksa
20'
F. Prikryl
29'
M. Vintr
35'
M. Zednicek
38'
M. Vintr
58'
L. Vychodil
60'
J. Ptacek← J. Ptacek
63'
J. KiskaPenalty
66'
S. Budinsky← S. Budinsky
70'
L. Lehnert
76'
O. Moucka← O. Moucka
76'
M. Praus← A. Zajicek
85'
J. Holzer← J. Holzer
85'
V. Wala← V. Wala
86'
M. Vintr← V. Ondrejka
90+1'
M. Vasulka← M. Vasulka
90+2'
M. Zednicek
90+2'
M. Zednicek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hlučín vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Hlučín 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 6, 2022.

Goals: R. Loksa (8'), M. Vintr (38'), J. Kiska (63' pen).

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín in Hlučín.