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Hlučín vs Tatran Bohunice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hlučín
Hlučín
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tatran Bohunice
Tatran Bohunice
3/8/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 18Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hlučín50%
×Draw24%
Tatran Bohunice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlučín
1.67
Tatran Bohunice
1.11

Hlučín creates 50% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hlučín
1.69
Tatran Bohunice
0.88

allows per match

Hlučín
1.34
Tatran Bohunice
1.65

finishing

Hlučín+0.00on par
Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlučín ↓

Tatran Bohunice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hlučín or draw
75%
Hlučín or Tatran Bohunice
76%
Draw or Tatran Bohunice
50%

Winning margin

Hlučín wins by 2+
27%
Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hlučín 1+ goals
81%
Hlučín 2+ goals
50%
Hlučín 3+ goals
23%
Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals
67%
Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals
30%
Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hlučín (draw refunded)
67%
Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlučín at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlučín attack 1.69 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Hlučín defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hlučín scores more
50%
level
24%
Tatran Bohunice scores more
25%

Hlučín at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hlučín 1–0 Tatran Bohunice

Hlučín beat Tatran Bohunice 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín in Hlučín.