Hlučín 0–0 Slovan Rosice: Result & Stats

Hlučín

FT

0 – 0

Slovan Rosice

10/16/2021

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 12Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Hlučín41%

×Draw25%

Slovan Rosice34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HlučínExpected goals in this matchSlovan Rosice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.31

Hlučín

1.46

Slovan Rosice

1.31

Hlučín creates 11% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

1.69

creates per match

1.27

1.34

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Hlučín

1.69

Slovan Rosice

1.27

allows per match

Hlučín

1.34

Slovan Rosice

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hlučín+0.00on par

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlučín ↓

Slovan Rosice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hlučín or draw

66%

Hlučín or Slovan Rosice

75%

Draw or Slovan Rosice

59%

Winning margin

Hlučín wins by 2+

20%

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hlučín 1+ goals

77%

Hlučín 2+ goals

43%

Hlučín 3+ goals

18%

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals

73%

Slovan Rosice 2+ goals

38%

Slovan Rosice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hlučín (draw refunded)

55%

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlučín at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlučín attack 1.69 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Hlučín defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hlučín scores more

41%

level

25%

Slovan Rosice scores more

34%

Hlučín at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

V. Wala

41'

T. Zezula

59'

R. Dostal← R. Dostal

61'

T. Praks← T. Praks

73'

A. Zajicek← A. Zajicek

73'

O. Moucka← T. Buchvaldek

75'

T. Praks

77'

J. Opatril

78'

D. Prerovsky← D. Prerovsky

78'

P. Sip← P. Sip

90+2'

D. Mladek

90+2'

T. Selinger← J. Krejci

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff