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Hluboka nad Vltavou vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hluboka nad Vltavou
Hluboka nad Vltavou
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
3/21/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Zimní Stadion Hluboká

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hluboka nad Vltavou62%
×Draw19%
Jindřichův Hradec19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hluboka nad Vltavou
2.33
Jindřichův Hradec
1.21

Hluboka nad Vltavou creates 93% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hluboka nad Vltavou
2.17
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Hluboka nad Vltavou
1.27
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Hluboka nad Vltavou+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hluboka nad Vltavou ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hluboka nad Vltavou or draw
81%
Hluboka nad Vltavou or Jindřichův Hradec
81%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
38%

Winning margin

Hluboka nad Vltavou wins by 2+
40%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hluboka nad Vltavou 1+ goals
90%
Hluboka nad Vltavou 2+ goals
67%
Hluboka nad Vltavou 3+ goals
41%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
70%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
34%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hluboka nad Vltavou (draw refunded)
77%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hluboka nad Vltavou at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hluboka nad Vltavou attack 2.17 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.33

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Hluboka nad Vltavou defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hluboka nad Vltavou scores more
62%
level
19%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
19%

Hluboka nad Vltavou at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hluboka nad Vltavou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hluboka nad Vltavou 3 – 1 Jindřichův Hradec

Hluboka nad Vltavou beat Jindřichův Hradec 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Zimní Stadion Hluboká in Hluboká nad Vltavou.