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HLM vs Oslo — Ligue 1 2019

HLM
HLM
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oslo
Oslo
6/1/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade municipal des HLM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HLM37%
×Draw32%
Oslo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HLM
1.00
Oslo
0.90

HLM creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

HLM
0.73
Oslo
0.80

allows per match

HLM
1.00
Oslo
1.27

finishing

HLM+0.00on par
Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HLM ↓

Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

HLM or draw
69%
HLM or Oslo
68%
Draw or Oslo
63%

Winning margin

HLM wins by 2+
14%
Oslo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

HLM 1+ goals
63%
HLM 2+ goals
26%
HLM 3+ goals
8%
Oslo 1+ goals
59%
Oslo 2+ goals
23%
Oslo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

HLM (draw refunded)
54%
Oslo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HLM at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Oslo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HLM attack 0.73 + Oslo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Oslo attack 0.80 + HLM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

HLM scores more
37%
level
32%
Oslo scores more
31%

HLM at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "HLM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HLM vs Oslo

HLM beat Oslo 1-0 in Ligue 1 on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade municipal des HLM in Dakar.