Hlinsko 0–3 Sokol Libiš: Result & Stats

Hlinsko

FT

0 – 3

Sokol Libiš

9/13/2020

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 4Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hlinsko64%

×Draw18%

Sokol Libiš18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HlinskoExpected goals in this matchSokol Libiš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.25

Hlinsko

2.47

Sokol Libiš

1.25

Hlinsko creates 98% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 26 away

1.90

creates per match

1.12

1.38

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Hlinsko

1.90

Sokol Libiš

1.12

allows per match

Hlinsko

1.38

Sokol Libiš

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hlinsko+0.00on par

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlinsko ↓

Sokol Libiš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hlinsko or draw

82%

Hlinsko or Sokol Libiš

82%

Draw or Sokol Libiš

36%

Winning margin

Hlinsko wins by 2+

42%

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hlinsko 1+ goals

91%

Hlinsko 2+ goals

70%

Hlinsko 3+ goals

44%

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals

71%

Sokol Libiš 2+ goals

36%

Sokol Libiš 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hlinsko (draw refunded)

78%

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlinsko at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlinsko attack 1.90 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.47

Sokol Libiš attack 1.12 + Hlinsko defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hlinsko scores more

64%

level

18%

Sokol Libiš scores more

18%

Hlinsko at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hlinsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff