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Hlinsko vs Poříčany — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Hlinsko
Hlinsko
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Poříčany
Poříčany
5/8/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 24Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hlinsko63%
×Draw19%
Poříčany18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlinsko
2.33
Poříčany
1.15

Hlinsko creates 103% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hlinsko
1.90
Poříčany
0.92

allows per match

Hlinsko
1.38
Poříčany
2.77

finishing

Hlinsko+0.00on par
Poříčany+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlinsko ↓

Poříčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hlinsko or draw
82%
Hlinsko or Poříčany
81%
Draw or Poříčany
37%

Winning margin

Hlinsko wins by 2+
41%
Poříčany wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hlinsko 1+ goals
90%
Hlinsko 2+ goals
67%
Hlinsko 3+ goals
41%
Poříčany 1+ goals
68%
Poříčany 2+ goals
32%
Poříčany 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hlinsko (draw refunded)
78%
Poříčany (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlinsko at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

Poříčany away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlinsko attack 1.90 + Poříčany defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.33

Poříčany attack 0.92 + Hlinsko defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hlinsko scores more
63%
level
19%
Poříčany scores more
18%

Hlinsko at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hlinsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hlinsko vs Poříčany

Hlinsko beat Poříčany 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský stadion in Hlinsko.