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Hlinsko vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Hlinsko
Hlinsko
CANC
15:00
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
4/17/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 20Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hlinsko62%
×Draw20%
Horky nad Jizerou19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlinsko
2.27
Horky nad Jizerou
1.17

Hlinsko creates 94% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 25 away

creates per match

Hlinsko
1.90
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Hlinsko
1.38
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Hlinsko+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlinsko ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hlinsko or draw
81%
Hlinsko or Horky nad Jizerou
80%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
38%

Winning margin

Hlinsko wins by 2+
39%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hlinsko 1+ goals
90%
Hlinsko 2+ goals
66%
Hlinsko 3+ goals
39%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
69%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
33%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hlinsko (draw refunded)
77%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlinsko at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlinsko attack 1.90 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.27

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Hlinsko defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hlinsko scores more
62%
level
20%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
19%

Hlinsko at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hlinsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hlinsko vs Horky nad Jizerou — Match Preview

Hlinsko face Horky nad Jizerou on April 17, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hlinsko host Horky nad Jizerou at Mestský stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.