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Hlinsko vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Hlinsko
Hlinsko
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
8/7/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 1Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hlinsko51%
×Draw22%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlinsko
1.92
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.34

Hlinsko creates 43% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hlinsko
1.90
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.30

allows per match

Hlinsko
1.38
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.93

finishing

Hlinsko+0.00on par
Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlinsko ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hlinsko or draw
73%
Hlinsko or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
78%
Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
49%

Winning margin

Hlinsko wins by 2+
29%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hlinsko 1+ goals
85%
Hlinsko 2+ goals
57%
Hlinsko 3+ goals
30%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
74%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
39%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hlinsko (draw refunded)
65%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlinsko at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlinsko attack 1.90 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.92

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Hlinsko defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hlinsko scores more
51%
level
22%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
27%

Hlinsko at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hlinsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hlinsko vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov

Hlinsko beat Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský stadion in Hlinsko.