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Hlinsko vs Benátky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Hlinsko
Hlinsko
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
4/19/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 20Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hlinsko39%
×Draw24%
Benátky nad Jizerou37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlinsko
1.57
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hlinsko
1.90
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.71

allows per match

Hlinsko
1.38
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.25

finishing

Hlinsko+0.00on par
Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlinsko ↓

Benátky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hlinsko or draw
63%
Hlinsko or Benátky nad Jizerou
76%
Draw or Benátky nad Jizerou
61%

Winning margin

Hlinsko wins by 2+
19%
Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hlinsko 1+ goals
79%
Hlinsko 2+ goals
46%
Hlinsko 3+ goals
21%
Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
79%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
45%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hlinsko (draw refunded)
51%
Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlinsko at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

Benátky nad Jizerou away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlinsko attack 1.90 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.71 + Hlinsko defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hlinsko scores more
39%
level
24%
Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
37%

Hlinsko at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hlinsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Hlinsko 0–3 Benátky nad Jizerou

Benátky nad Jizerou beat Hlinsko 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský stadion in Hlinsko.