HK Kopavogur 3–1 Vikingur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

HK Kopavogur

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vikingur Reykjavik

A. Atlason 90+7'

M. Pétursson 55'

A. Jónasson 27'

A. Þrándarson 58'

5/5/2024

Úrvalsdeild · Round 5Kórinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HK Kopavogur26%

×Draw22%

Vikingur Reykjavik53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HK KopavogurExpected goals in this matchVikingur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.04

HK Kopavogur

1.38

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.04

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

1.67

creates per match

2.42

1.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

HK Kopavogur

1.67

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.42

allows per match

HK Kopavogur

1.67

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

Vikingur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw

47%

HK Kopavogur or Vikingur Reykjavik

78%

Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik

74%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

11%

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

75%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

40%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

16%

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

87%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

60%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

33%

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Vikingur Reykjavik away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 1.67 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 2.42 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more

26%

level

22%

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

53%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

B. Jonsson

27'

A. Jónasson↳ M. Pétursson

28'

A. Jonasson

37'

A. Andrason

46'

A. Sigurpálsson← V. Ingimundarson

46'

A. Þrándarson← M. Vilhjálmsson

46'

N. Hansen← H. Guðjónsson

55'

M. Pétursson

58'

A. Þrándarson↳ A. Sigurpálsson

67'

M. Petursson

69'

A. Arnarson← A. Jónasson

69'

H. Jónsson← A. Andrason

71'

B. Palsson

73'

B. Burknason← M. Pétursson

76'

V. Andrason← D. Djuric

83'

P. Punyed

83'

G. Nunn

83'

A. Arnarson

84'

T. Þorvarsson← K. Frostason

90+7'

A. Atlason

HK

Vikingur

80

24

4

6

22

27

▼

Vilhjálms

10

Punyed

7

Agnarsson

25

▼

Ingimunda

19

▼

Djuric

9

▼

25

4

6

5

2

▼

Frostason

24

⚽A

▼

Pétursson

8

⚽

Atlason

14

Pálsson

10

▼

Andrason

7

Nunn

30

⚽

▼

Jónasson

Manager: Ó. Guðmundsson

69'▲A. Arnarson←▼A. Jónasson

69'▲H. Jónsson←▼A. Andrason

73'▲B. Burknason←▼M. Pétursson

84'▲T. Þorvarsson←▼K. Frostason

HK Kopavogur substitutes

18Arnarson33Jónsson19Burknason28Þorvarsson20Ómarsson11Aziz12Stéfansson

Manager: A. Gunnlaugsson

46'▲A. Sigurpálsson←▼V. Ingimundarson

46'▲A. Þrándarson←▼M. Vilhjálmsson

46'▲N. Hansen←▼H. Guðjónsson

76'▲V. Andrason←▼D. Djuric

Vikingur Reykjavik substitutes

17Sigurpálsson21Þrándarson23Hansen8Andrason1Jónsson11Þórðarson2Þorkelsson