HK Kopavogur 7–1 KFS: Result & Stats | Cup

HK Kopavogur

7 – 1

HT: 5 – 1

KFS

Í. Jónsson 85'

B. Runólfsson 50'

Á. Marteinsson 45', 39'

J. Barðdal 30', 1'

Ö. Eggertsson 16'

V. Þorvarðarson 27'

8/11/2021

Cup · Round of 16Kórinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

HK Kopavogur81%

×Draw11%

KFS8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HK KopavogurExpected goals in this matchKFS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.88

1.27

HK Kopavogur

3.88

KFS

1.27

HK Kopavogur creates 206% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

3.54

creates per match

1.22

1.31

allows per match

4.22

creates per match

HK Kopavogur

3.54

KFS

1.22

allows per match

HK Kopavogur

1.31

KFS

4.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

KFS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

KFS →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw

92%

HK Kopavogur or KFS

89%

Draw or KFS

19%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

65%

KFS wins by 2+

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

98%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

89%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

72%

KFS 1+ goals

72%

KFS 2+ goals

36%

KFS 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

91%

KFS (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

KFS away — creates 1.22, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 3.54 + KFS defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 3.88

KFS attack 1.22 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 81%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more

81%

level

11%

KFS scores more

HK Kopavogur at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

27'

30'

39'

45'

46'

Í. Jónsson← A. Arnarson

46'

V. Valgeirsson← B. Jónsson

50'

B. Runólfsson

54'

V. Thorvardarson

56'

A. Gunnarsson← B. Arnsteinsson

56'

B. Björgvinsson← B. Alfreðsson

58'

Í. Santos← Í. Gissurarson

69'

B. Bjarnason← V. Þorvarðarson

69'

D. Sigmarsson← F. Sigurðsson

76'

B. Ingason← Á. Marteinsson

76'

S. Ljubicic← Ö. Eggertsson

76'

S. Jóhannsson← E. Ómarsson

85'

90'

KFS

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Eggertsso

▼

Gissurars

Eyjólfsso

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

Manager: B. Gunnarsson

46'▲Í. Jónsson←▼A. Arnarson

46'▲V. Valgeirsson←▼B. Jónsson

58'▲Í. Santos←▼Í. Gissurarson

76'▲B. Ingason←▼Á. Marteinsson

76'▲S. Ljubicic←▼Ö. Eggertsson

HK Kopavogur substitutes

JónssonValgeirssonSantosIngasonLjubicicAtlasonÓlafsson

Manager: G. Þorvaldsson

56'▲A. Gunnarsson←▼B. Arnsteinsson

56'▲B. Björgvinsson←▼B. Alfreðsson

69'▲B. Bjarnason←▼V. Þorvarðarson

69'▲D. Sigmarsson←▼F. Sigurðsson

76'▲S. Jóhannsson←▼E. Ómarsson

KFS substitutes

GunnarssonBjörgvinssonBjarnasonSigmarssonJóhannssonEinarssonRuiz

Cup: HK Kopavogur 7–1 KFS

HK Kopavogur beat KFS 7-1 in Cup on August 11, 2021.

Goals: J. Barðdal (1', 30'), Ö. Eggertsson (16'), V. Þorvarðarson (27'), Á. Marteinsson (39', 45'), B. Runólfsson (50'), Í. Jónsson (85').

The match was played at Kórinn in Kópavogur.

HK Kopavogur vs KFS — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: HK Kopavogur 7–1 KFS