HK Kopavogur 5–0 KFG: Result & Stats | Cup

HK Kopavogur

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

KFG

H. Jalloh 90+3', 85'

Í. Gissurarson 71'

A. Jónasson 45+1'

M. Aziz 6'

4/20/2023

Cup · Round of 32Kórinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HK Kopavogur70%

×Draw14%

KFG16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HK KopavogurExpected goals in this matchKFG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.65

1.78

HK Kopavogur

3.65

KFG

1.78

HK Kopavogur creates 105% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

3.54

creates per match

2.25

1.31

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

HK Kopavogur

3.54

KFG

2.25

allows per match

HK Kopavogur

1.31

KFG

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

KFG →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–04%

4–16%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw

84%

HK Kopavogur or KFG

86%

Draw or KFG

30%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

52%

KFG wins by 2+

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

97%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

87%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

68%

KFG 1+ goals

83%

KFG 2+ goals

53%

KFG 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

82%

KFG (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

KFG away — creates 2.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 3.54 + KFG defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.65

KFG attack 2.25 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more

70%

level

14%

KFG scores more

16%

HK Kopavogur at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

M. Aziz

15'

O. Hakonarson

17'

A. Faqa

45+1'

A. Jónasson

46'

A. Andrason← M. Aziz

46'

A. Harðarson← A. Atlason

58'

D. Garðarsson← H. Friðriksson

62'

B. Burknason← T. Þorvarsson

71'

Í. Gissurarson← Í. Jónsson

71'

J. Jóhannsson← K. Pétursson

71'

Í. Gissurarson

76'

Í. Ómarsson← E. Rúnarsson

77'

G. Aðalsteinsson← J. Barðdal

77'

G. Hálfdanarson← W. Just

78'

E. Kristjánsson← K. Magnússon

85'

H. Jalloh

90+3'

H. Jalloh

KFG

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

Manager: Ó. Guðmundsson

46'▲A. Andrason←▼M. Aziz

46'▲A. Harðarson←▼A. Atlason

62'▲B. Burknason←▼T. Þorvarsson

71'▲Í. Gissurarson←▼Í. Jónsson

76'▲Í. Ómarsson←▼E. Rúnarsson

HK Kopavogur substitutes

AndrasonHarðarsonBurknasonGissurarsonÓmarssonEggertssonStéfansson

Manager: B. Másson

58'▲D. Garðarsson←▼H. Friðriksson

71'▲J. Jóhannsson←▼K. Pétursson

77'▲G. Aðalsteinsson←▼J. Barðdal

77'▲G. Hálfdanarson←▼W. Just

78'▲E. Kristjánsson←▼K. Magnússon

KFG substitutes

GarðarssonJóhannssonAðalsteinssonHálfdanarsonKristjánssonBaldurssonJóhannesson

Cup: HK Kopavogur 5–0 KFG

HK Kopavogur beat KFG 5-0 in Cup on April 20, 2023.

Goals: M. Aziz (6'), A. Jónasson (45+1'), Í. Gissurarson (71'), H. Jalloh (85', 90+3').

The match was played at Kórinn in Kópavogur.

HK Kopavogur vs KFG — Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: HK Kopavogur 5–0 KFG