HK Kopavogur 5–1 Fjardabyggd: Result & Stats | Cup

HK Kopavogur

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Fjardabyggd

5/1/2019

Cup · 16th FinalsKórinn (Kópavogur)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HK Kopavogur70%

×Draw16%

Fjardabyggd15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HK KopavogurExpected goals in this matchFjardabyggd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

1.32

HK Kopavogur

2.94

Fjardabyggd

1.32

HK Kopavogur creates 123% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

3.54

creates per match

1.33

1.31

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

HK Kopavogur

3.54

Fjardabyggd

1.33

allows per match

HK Kopavogur

1.31

Fjardabyggd

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Fjardabyggd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

Fjardabyggd →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw

85%

HK Kopavogur or Fjardabyggd

84%

Draw or Fjardabyggd

30%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

49%

Fjardabyggd wins by 2+

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

95%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

79%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

55%

Fjardabyggd 1+ goals

73%

Fjardabyggd 2+ goals

38%

Fjardabyggd 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

82%

Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Fjardabyggd away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 3.54 + Fjardabyggd defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.94

Fjardabyggd attack 1.33 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more

70%

level

16%

Fjardabyggd scores more

15%

HK Kopavogur at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff