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HJS Akatemia vs Tampere United — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tampere United
Tampere United
9/16/2023Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 19Kaurialan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

HJS Akatemia49%
×Draw21%
Tampere United29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJS Akatemia
2.05
Tampere United
1.55

HJS Akatemia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 44 away

creates per match

HJS Akatemia
2.04
Tampere United
1.55

allows per match

HJS Akatemia
1.55
Tampere United
2.07

finishing

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par
Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJS Akatemia ↓

Tampere United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

HJS Akatemia or draw
71%
HJS Akatemia or Tampere United
79%
Draw or Tampere United
51%

Winning margin

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
28%
Tampere United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
87%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
61%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
33%
Tampere United 1+ goals
79%
Tampere United 2+ goals
46%
Tampere United 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
63%
Tampere United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJS Akatemia at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

Tampere United away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJS Akatemia attack 2.04 + Tampere United defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.05

Tampere United attack 1.55 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

HJS Akatemia scores more
49%
level
21%
Tampere United scores more
29%

HJS Akatemia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HJS Akatemia vs Tampere United

HJS Akatemia and Tampere United drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Kaurialan kenttä in Tavastehus.