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HJS Akatemia vs SalPa — Suomen Cup 2018

HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SalPa
SalPa
5/6/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundPulleri tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HJS Akatemia17%
×Draw24%
SalPa59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJS Akatemia
0.78
SalPa
1.68

SalPa creates 115% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

HJS Akatemia
0.75
SalPa
2.60

allows per match

HJS Akatemia
0.75
SalPa
0.80

finishing

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par
SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJS Akatemia ↓

SalPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

HJS Akatemia or draw
41%
HJS Akatemia or SalPa
76%
Draw or SalPa
83%

Winning margin

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
5%
SalPa wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
54%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
18%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
4%
SalPa 1+ goals
81%
SalPa 2+ goals
50%
SalPa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
23%
SalPa (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJS Akatemia at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

SalPa away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJS Akatemia attack 0.75 + SalPa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

SalPa attack 2.60 + HJS Akatemia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

HJS Akatemia scores more
17%
level
24%
SalPa scores more
59%

SalPa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HJS Akatemia vs SalPa

HJS Akatemia and SalPa drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Pulleri tekonurmi in Hämeenlinna.