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HJK U19 vs Genk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

HJK U19
HJK U19advanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Genk U19
Genk U19
11/26/2025UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · FinalBolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

HJK U1931%
×Draw23%
Genk U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK U19
1.39
Genk U19
1.75

Genk U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

HJK U19
1.67
Genk U19
2.50

allows per match

HJK U19
1.00
Genk U19
1.10

finishing

HJK U19+0.00on par
Genk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK U19 ↓

Genk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

HJK U19 or draw
54%
HJK U19 or Genk U19
77%
Draw or Genk U19
69%

Winning margin

HJK U19 wins by 2+
14%
Genk U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

HJK U19 1+ goals
75%
HJK U19 2+ goals
40%
HJK U19 3+ goals
16%
Genk U19 1+ goals
83%
Genk U19 2+ goals
52%
Genk U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

HJK U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Genk U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Genk U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK U19 attack 1.67 + Genk U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Genk U19 attack 2.50 + HJK U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HJK U19 scores more
31%
level
23%
Genk U19 scores more
46%

Genk U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Genk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HJK U19 1 – 0 Genk U19

HJK U19 beat Genk U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 26, 2025.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.