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HJK Helsinki vs VPS — Suomen Cup 2018

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
VPS
VPS
3/18/2018Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Play-offsBolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

HJK Helsinki30%
×Draw20%
VPS50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.86
VPS
2.40

VPS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
2.63
VPS
4.00

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
0.79
VPS
1.10

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
50%
HJK Helsinki or VPS
80%
Draw or VPS
70%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
15%
VPS wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
84%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
55%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
28%
VPS 1+ goals
91%
VPS 2+ goals
69%
VPS 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
38%
VPS (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

VPS away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 2.63 + VPS defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.86

VPS attack 4.00 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
30%
level
20%
VPS scores more
50%

VPS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HJK Helsinki 4–1 VPS

HJK Helsinki beat VPS 4-1 in Suomen Cup on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.