HJK Helsinki vs VPS — Veikkausliiga 2018
VPS score first in only 22% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
HJK Helsinki53%
VPS22%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
HJK Helsinki creates 74% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
HJK Helsinki ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
HJK Helsinki at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.15 · 5 matches
VPS away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.21 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
HJK Helsinki attack 1.99 + VPS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.60
VPS attack 0.68 + HJK Helsinki defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
HJK Helsinki at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- VPS have scored in 7 games running
- HJK Helsinki score first in only 35% of matches
- VPS win just 14% of their away games
- 66% of HJK Helsinki’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- HJK Helsinki win just 49% against the top half (vs 74% against the bottom)
- Style contrast — HJK Helsinki play Possession-dominant, VPS Defensively solid
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
HJK Helsinki host VPS on Saturday, 18 July 2026 at 12:00. The match is part of the Veikkausliiga 2018/2019 season.
HJK Helsinki face VPS (Veikkausliiga)
Veikkausliiga returns with HJK Helsinki hosting VPS. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
HJK Helsinki host VPS at Bolt Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.