HJK Helsinki 3–0 SJK: Result & Stats

HJK Helsinki

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SJK

T. Mero 81'

T. Pukki 49'

D. Ezeh 36'

4/4/2026

Veikkausliiga · Round 1Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

HJK Helsinki50%

×Draw20%

SJK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HJK HelsinkiExpected goals in this matchSJK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.70

HJK Helsinki

2.24

SJK

1.70

HJK Helsinki creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.33

creates per match

2.20

1.19

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

HJK Helsinki

2.33

SJK

2.20

allows per match

HJK Helsinki

1.19

SJK

2.14

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.67scores more

SJK+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

SJK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw

70%

HJK Helsinki or SJK

80%

Draw or SJK

50%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+

30%

SJK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals

89%

HJK Helsinki 2+ goals

65%

HJK Helsinki 3+ goals

38%

SJK 1+ goals

82%

SJK 2+ goals

51%

SJK 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)

63%

SJK (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.19 · 8 matches

SJK away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.14 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 2.33 + SJK defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.24

SJK attack 2.20 + HJK Helsinki defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more

50%

level

20%

SJK scores more

30%

HJK Helsinki at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Ezeh

HJK Helsinki · M

8.6

Match Events

36'

D. Ezeh↳ L. Lingman

49'

T. Pukki↳ D. Ezeh

51'

Ussumane Djalo

54'

L. Vesterbacka← E. Mastokangas

54'

Rangel← S. Yussif

54'

K. Paananen← O. Tessilimi

67'

T. Mero← T. Pukki

67'

J. Kallinen← P. Mentu

70'

D. Bulgakov← Mani

74'

M. Ylitolva← B. Lyons-Foster

74'

M. Kirilov← D. Ezeh

80'

Aapo Bostrom

81'

T. Mero↳ M. Kirilov

82'

P. Padera← A. Bostrom

85'

L. Lappalainen← L. Lingman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HJKSJK

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots7

3.38Expected Goals (xG)0.90

7Corners2

6Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target3

3Off Target2

9Blocked2

15Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

501Total Passes392

442Accurate Passes333

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1