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HJK Helsinki vs Rops — Veikkausliiga 2018

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rops
Rops
9/1/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 22Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

HJK Helsinki57%
×Draw23%
Rops19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.77
Rops
0.92

HJK Helsinki creates 92% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 43 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
1.97
Rops
0.88

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
0.95
Rops
1.58

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
81%
HJK Helsinki or Rops
77%
Draw or Rops
43%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
32%
Rops wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
83%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
53%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
26%
Rops 1+ goals
60%
Rops 2+ goals
23%
Rops 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
75%
Rops (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.95 · 121 matches

Rops away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 1.97 + Rops defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rops attack 0.88 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
57%
level
23%
Rops scores more
19%

HJK Helsinki at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HJK Helsinki vs Rops

HJK Helsinki and Rops drew 2-2 in Veikkausliiga on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki).