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HJK Helsinki vs PS Kemi Kings — Veikkausliiga 2018

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
8/19/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 24Telia 5G -areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

HJK Helsinki62%
×Draw22%
PS Kemi Kings16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.89
PS Kemi Kings
0.85

HJK Helsinki creates 122% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 21 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
1.97
PS Kemi Kings
0.76

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
0.95
PS Kemi Kings
1.81

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

PS Kemi Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
84%
HJK Helsinki or PS Kemi Kings
78%
Draw or PS Kemi Kings
38%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
37%
PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
85%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
56%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
29%
PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
57%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
21%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
79%
PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.95 · 121 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 1.97 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.89

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.76 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
62%
level
22%
PS Kemi Kings scores more
16%

HJK Helsinki at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: HJK Helsinki 0–0 PS Kemi Kings

HJK Helsinki and PS Kemi Kings drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena in Helsinki.