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Hittisau vs Brederis — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hittisau
Hittisau
FT
1 – 3
Brederis
Brederis
8/12/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 4Sportanlage Hittisau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hittisau61%
×Draw17%
Brederis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hittisau
2.97
Brederis
1.77

Hittisau creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hittisau
1.53
Brederis
1.27

allows per match

Hittisau
2.27
Brederis
4.40

finishing

Hittisau+0.00on par
Brederis+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hittisau ↓

Brederis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Hittisau or draw
78%
Hittisau or Brederis
83%
Draw or Brederis
39%

Winning margin

Hittisau wins by 2+
42%
Brederis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hittisau 1+ goals
95%
Hittisau 2+ goals
79%
Hittisau 3+ goals
56%
Brederis 1+ goals
83%
Brederis 2+ goals
53%
Brederis 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hittisau (draw refunded)
74%
Brederis (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hittisau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Brederis away — creates 1.27, concedes 4.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hittisau attack 1.53 + Brederis defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 2.97

Brederis attack 1.27 + Hittisau defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hittisau scores more
61%
level
17%
Brederis scores more
22%

Hittisau at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hittisau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hittisau vs Brederis

Brederis beat Hittisau 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Hittisau in Hittisau.