Hittisau 0–1 Andelsbuch: Result & Stats

Hittisau

FT

0 – 1

Andelsbuch

4/22/2023

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 23Sportanlage Hittisau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hittisau31%

×Draw21%

Andelsbuch47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HittisauExpected goals in this matchAndelsbuch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.03

Hittisau

1.63

Andelsbuch

2.03

Andelsbuch creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

1.53

creates per match

1.79

2.27

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Hittisau

1.53

Andelsbuch

1.79

allows per match

Hittisau

2.27

Andelsbuch

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hittisau+0.00on par

Andelsbuch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hittisau ↓

Andelsbuch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hittisau or draw

53%

Hittisau or Andelsbuch

79%

Draw or Andelsbuch

69%

Winning margin

Hittisau wins by 2+

15%

Andelsbuch wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Hittisau 1+ goals

80%

Hittisau 2+ goals

48%

Hittisau 3+ goals

22%

Andelsbuch 1+ goals

87%

Andelsbuch 2+ goals

60%

Andelsbuch 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Hittisau (draw refunded)

40%

Andelsbuch (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hittisau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Andelsbuch away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hittisau attack 1.53 + Andelsbuch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Andelsbuch attack 1.79 + Hittisau defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hittisau scores more

31%

level

21%

Andelsbuch scores more

47%

Andelsbuch at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Andelsbuch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff