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Hitthaller St. Michael vs Rottenmann — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
FT
1 – 0
Rottenmann
Rottenmann
10/12/2019Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 11Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hitthaller St. Michael39%
×Draw23%
Rottenmann38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.65
Rottenmann
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.15
Rottenmann
1.19

allows per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
2.04
Rottenmann
2.15

finishing

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par
Rottenmann+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitthaller St. Michael ↓

Rottenmann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hitthaller St. Michael or draw
62%
Hitthaller St. Michael or Rottenmann
77%
Draw or Rottenmann
61%

Winning margin

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
20%
Rottenmann wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
81%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
49%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
23%
Rottenmann 1+ goals
80%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
48%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
51%
Rottenmann (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitthaller St. Michael at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

Rottenmann away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.15 + Rottenmann defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Rottenmann attack 1.19 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
39%
level
23%
Rottenmann scores more
38%

Hitthaller St. Michael at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hitthaller St. Michael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hitthaller St. Michael 1 – 0 Rottenmann

Hitthaller St. Michael beat Rottenmann 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark in Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark.